A Tale of Two Speeches

NYT News Analysis: The assessment that Ryan C. Crocker, the American ambassador to Iraq, gave to Congress on Monday left unmentioned or glossed over some of the most troubling developments of the past nine months. His portrait of Iraq did not include many of the signs of deepening divisions between Sunni Arabs and Shiites and within each sect, which have raised fears among many Iraqis that their country will fracture further.

His testimony did not address the continuing wave of internal displacements, only glancingly mentioned Baghdad’s starved infrastructure and said almost nothing about the government’s inability or unwillingness to deliver services to other parts of the country as well.

His description of the growth of provincial power neglected to mention its darker side: Some provinces are becoming rival power centers and could as easily contribute to the country’s disintegration as to its stability.

Clearly the challenge before Mr. Crocker was immense. Unlike his military counterpart, Gen. David H. Petraeus, who narrowed his purview to quantifiable security measures, the ambassador had the task of making a coherent case for extending a substantial American presence though political advances had amounted to little more than initial talks among groups with a history of armed clashes and broken promises.

As he has since he arrived, Mr. Crocker tried to change the terms of the debate, suggesting that Congress should focus on the informal ways that Iraq was improving, rather than specific benchmarks or deadlines. He also sought, as he had before, to force lawmakers to consider the dangers that would likely unfold if they acceded to the popular demands for a speedy withdrawal, and he sought to put Iraq’s struggles in historical context.

Mr. Crocker’s conclusions were measured and far from rosy. He admitted that he was “frustrated every day I am in Iraq.” But he made a point of being specific about the more upbeat developments and left vague those that were negative.

His tone contrasted with the tone of his remarks at a recent round table for reporters in Baghdad at which he described his dismay at the city’s disintegration.

“What’s happened over the last couple of years is stunning,” he said, describing his visits to neighborhoods that he last saw in 2003. “What has happened to middle-class, upper-class neighborhoods — the violence, the population shifts, the displacement, the tens of thousands of Iraqis that have been killed. You’re just not going to overcome that in a few weeks or indeed in a few months.”

His conclusions then and on Monday were the same: If stability is to come, it will take years. He said that Iraq was on the road to progress.

Yet many Iraqis have told reporters they still do not feel secure, despite General Petraeus’s charts showing drops in violence. Internal displacement has doubled since the “surge” began, reaching 1.1 million people nationwide, according to the International Office of Migration and the Iraqi Red Crescent Society. (More)