Real Clear Politics Now Projecting a 50/50 makeup in Senate

Real Clear Politics is now predicting that Democrats will pick up net total of 5 Senate seats for a projected makeup of 50 for each party. Prior to the weekend RCP had shown a net pickup of only 3 or 4 seats for Democrats. RCP uses a sampling of the latest surveys to develop and average, discounting polls that they consider questionable. Here is a summary the current RCP averages:

· Arizona: Kyle (R) +9.0%
· Connecticut: Lieberman (I) +6.7%
· Maryland: Cardin (D) +5.3%
· Michigan: Stabenow (D) +13.2%
· Minnesota: Klobuchar (D) +13.0%
· Missouri: McCaskill (D) +1.3% *
· Montana: Tester (D) +5.6% *
· New Jersey: Kean (R) +1.2% *
· Ohio: Brown (D) +4.6% *
· Pennsylvania: Casey (D) +11.0% *
· Rhode Island: Whitehouse (D) +2.3% *
· Tennessee: Ford (D) +3.0% *
· Virginia: Allen (R) +4.0%
· Washington: Cantwell (D) +9.4%

* denotes a pickup and all others are retentions.

LSB: Yes, a lot of the early polling is trending in a favorable way, but let’s also remember:

• There are still 4 weeks left in the campaign;
• Anything can (and often does) happen;
• We don't know that Rove and Mehlman are plotting;
• Democrats have a history of robbing themselves of victory;
• There is a danger in over-confidence; and
• There is only one poll that counts – the election!

What do Rove and Mehlman have to overcome? (1) Allegations (too numerous to list) in Bob Woodward’s book State of Denial in the run-up to war; (2) Foley page-sex scandal and House GOP cover-up; (3) NIE report and Dem’s no-confidence in Rumsfeld; (4) Abramoff, Delay, Ney, Cunningham - and now Hastert? - bribery mess; (5) Torture as a “family value”; (6) Plamegate; (7) Allen’s racism, Burn’s stupidity, and Santorum’s… stupidity; (8) Funding cuts at the Environmental Protection Agency, Education Department, and in military health care and veteran benefits; (9) Enemy combatants held indefinitely without habeas corpus; (10) Wiretapping without prior court approval; (11) Failure to raise the minimum wage unless a tax cut was given to millionaires; (12) Vetoing stem cell research; (13) Poor leadership in the Gulf Coast after Katrina; (14) Interference in the Terri Schiavo court proceedings; (15) Hiring Dubai Ports World to manage our unguarded ports; (15) Ignoring global warming; (16) Creating a secret energy program with Big Oil; and (17) Proposing the border fence, among others.

Seems like the GOP has already used the gay-marriage and flag burning bullets, so what’s left in their arsenal?