An Electoral Rout in November?

Charlie Cook, for The Stakeholder (DCCC weblog): With fewer than 100 days left before the Nov. 7 election, certain assumptions can now be made, contingent upon the absence of a cataclysmic event.

First, the political climate will be extremely hostile to Republican candidates. Second, while Republicans benefited from turnout in 2002 and 2004, this time voter turnout will benefit Democratic candidates. And third, the advantages that the GOP usually has in national party spending will be significantly less than normal.

In terms of the political climate, the facts are clear. All of the traditional diagnostic indicators in major national polls taken in the past 10 days show numbers consistent with an electoral rout.

Ed.: No matter how much I hope he’s right, this seems to reading the tea leaves in a hopeful way.

• “…among 809 registered voters, only 27 percent said the country was headed in the right direction and 63 percent said it was off on the wrong track…” We’ve become so single-issue focused, that even though people disagree with the way the country is headed, if their “wrong thinking” representative agrees with them on abortion, same sex marriage or some other hot button topic they’ll vote the jerk back into office. What was a predictor in the past is less likely to be a predictor now, IMHO.
• “Democrats had a 19-point lead on the generic congressional ballot…” Key words are "had" and “generic.” Districts tend to keep their representative – unless your representative been caught red-handed with his/her hand in the community coffers or with an under-aged prostitute. Most voters hope that the district with the "asshole Congressman” wakes up and votes him/her out.